Is the upcoming US election going to be the first won on social media?

There is an interesting development in the race to the Whitehouse in the United States of America. The nation that prides itself as being the beacon of the free World, the bastion of democracy against a tide of extremism and dictatorship may just be about to get rather more freedom and democracy than it bargained for, and the results could be rather different than expected. In order to understand what is going on it may be worth taking a little history lesson. In US politics, as in many Western democracies there has been a tacit understanding between politicians and the media that the success or failure of a political campaign is heavily dependent on the way it is presented in the mainstream press. Political parties have invested heavily in PR agencies, spin doctors and media consultants to act as liaison between themselves and the press organisations. The backing of key media barons was seen as crucial to an election campaign. As a consequence of this the general public were to a significant extent at the mercy of the media to be guided as to where to mark that all important X on the ballot paper.

So, given this history, what makes the 2012 campaign so different? There is one phenomenon that could be a real game changer, and that is the rise and rise of social networking. The twitter feeds and facebook statuses are full of political comment ranging from the mainstream opinions parroted from the press to the most extreme of alternative views, and personal vitriol. The increase in prevalence of alternative media sources, blogs, investigative journalists and the near ubiquitous availability of the internet has meant that people have, for the first time far greater access to information that has not first been passed through the spin doctors and PR consultants and filtered by the press. The consequence of this for political groups is that they are having to find new ways to maintain control of their political message. What also needs to be considered is that this change is occurring at the same time as the worst financial crisis in American history, a time when the US is desperately in need of radical change.

The impact of social media has also been to allow previously marginalised groups to greater prominence on both sides of the political divide, and this will be am excellent opportunity to see what effect this has. It should perhaps be noted that one key area of difference between the mainstream media and social networking is in demographics. Social media trends towards an age range of twenty to forty as compared to the mainstream press which has a readership age of thirty five to sixty. This means that the most politically vibrant and socially motivated section of the electorate is the key driving force behind this change. When this is taken into consideration the rumours regarding the infiltration of Facebook by the CIA and covert political groups begins to make far more sense. Don't be at all surprised to see an increasing level of political intrigue and personal attack over the coming few weeks, as well as an increase in the number of mysteriously disappearing posts and tweets.

This is going to be an interesting election campaign and the fallout from it as people realise how their social networks are being manipulated could create the climate in which politicians finally lose the confidence of the electorate, just at the point where political instability combined with financial meltdown leads to the need to develop the single global currency and the rise of the Elite.